The only thing predictable about today’s VIR 240 is that it is expected to be unpredictable.

At four hours, (hence the 240 minutes reference in the event title) the first ALMS race on the narrow 3.27 mile circuit will likely include some caution periods as passing opportunities are outnumbered by traffic chokepoints.

The extra 75 minutes in race length dramatically widens the range of race strategies. With season titles on the line and just one race, Petit Le Mans at Road Atlanta, October 20, remaining after today, look for the championship leaders to be a bit conservative and the challengers to roll the dice on pit stops and perhaps in traffic.

The simplest plan is to break the race into four approximately one-hour stints, meaning three pit stops. If the race were to stay green for the distance, the top class P1 cars may also need a splash of fuel near the end.

More likely, the race will be interspersed with some caution periods. The timing of any cautions and the resulting shuffles in track position can certainly be a factor.

Tire wear is relatively light, so double stints are possible, and some teams expect to skip tire changes in favor of track position, as working back through traffic will become increasingly difficult as the race progresses.

The weather forecast calls for a sunny day with high temperatures in the low 80-degree range for the 2:30 pm race start. Temperatures are expected to drop 8-10 degrees by the 6:30 pm race end with sunset less than an hour later. By then, some folks will be finishing the cycle of television interviews, podium ceremonies and press conferecnes and will tell us how it was done.